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  • Dec 12: Friday the 12th Brings Good News, Rates Dip (Finally) ๐Ÿ“‰

Dec 12: Friday the 12th Brings Good News, Rates Dip (Finally) ๐Ÿ“‰

Rates Actually Moved in the Right Direction (Plus Your Last-Minute Year-End Moves)

๐ŸŽ„ The Lending Letter ๐Ÿก

Friday, December 12th: TGIFโ€”Rates Drop & Your Weekend Action Plan

Happy Friday! ๐ŸŽ‰ You made it through another week. While your inbox is probably drowning in "Last Chance Holiday Sale!!!" emails, here's something that actually deserves your attention: mortgage rates dropped today. Yeah, we said it. Down 4 basis points might not sound sexy, but in this market, we'll take our wins where we can get them. ๐Ÿ“‰

Plus, it's Friday the 12th (not the scary one), which means you've got the weekend to either pretend you're going to be productive or actually line up your end-of-year real estate moves. Spoiler: We're here to help with option two. โ˜•

๐Ÿ“Š TODAY'S 30-YEAR FIXED RATE
6.26%
โ–ผ Down 0.04% from yesterday ๐ŸŽฏ
According to Mortgage News Daily | As of 12/12/25

๐ŸŽฏ Why Today's Drop Actually Matters

Look, we're not going to pretend that 6.26% is some magical number that changes everything. But here's why this matters: rates have been bouncing around the 6.30% mark for weeks, and every little dip creates opportunity for people who are paying attention. ๐Ÿ‘€

According to today's MND data, this movement is tied to bond market reactions to inflation signals. Translation: The market thinks inflation might be cooling slightly, and lenders are adjusting accordingly. Will it last? Who knows. But it's happening today, and that's what matters for this newsletter. ๐Ÿ“Š

โฐ The December 13th Deadline Everyone's Ignoring

Quick Friday PSA: If you want to close on a property before year-end (for tax purposes, rate locks, or just to hit your 2025 goals), you're running out of time. Most lenders need 30-45 days from application to close. December 13th is effectively the last day to start the process and have a shot at closing before New Year's. ๐Ÿ—“๏ธ

Is it cutting it close? Absolutely. Is it possible with the right lender and a clean file? Also yes. Just saying. โšก

๐Ÿ’ฐ Lender Promos: Last-Call December Deals

๐Ÿ  Need a Loan for Any Property? Primary residence, rental, vacation homeโ€”whatever you're buying, lenders are trying to hit year-end quotas. That means competitive rates and faster processing. Fill out this quick form and we'll connect you with lenders who actually want your business before December 31st.

๐Ÿข Investment Property Shopping? December inventory is goldenโ€”less competition, motivated sellers, immediate tax benefits. Connect with investment specialists here who understand cap rates better than they understand holiday shopping. ๐Ÿ’ผ

๐Ÿ–๏ธ Short-Term Rental in Your Plans? STR lending is a different beast, and most loan officers have no idea what they're doing with it. Get connected with actual STR specialists here who know how to underwrite based on projected rental income, not just your W-2. Game changer. ๐ŸŽฎ

๐Ÿง  Educational Corner: The Rent vs. Buy Calculation Everyone Gets Wrong

Let's talk about something that drives us crazy: the way most people calculate whether they should rent or buy. And spoiler alertโ€”almost everyone does it wrong. ๐Ÿคฆ

Here's what most people do: They compare their monthly rent to the monthly mortgage payment (principal + interest) and call it a day. "Rent is $2,500, mortgage would be $2,800, so renting is cheaper!" Case closed, right? Wrong. So, so wrong. ๐Ÿšซ

๐Ÿ’ก The REAL Rent vs. Buy Formula

What You Should Actually Compare:

Monthly Rent: Just your rent (easy part)

Monthly "Cost" of Buying: According to The New York Times' rent vs. buy calculator, you need to factor in:

  • Principal + Interest (the obvious part)
  • Property Taxes (varies wildly by locationโ€”check your county)
  • Insurance (homeowners + potentially flood/earthquake)
  • Maintenance (rule of thumb: 1-2% of home value annually, per Zillow's data)
  • HOA fees (if applicable)
  • MINUS: Tax Benefits (mortgage interest deduction + property tax deduction, though these are limited after 2017 tax reform)
  • MINUS: Principal Paydown (this is equity you're building, not throwing away)
  • MINUS: Appreciation (historical average is 3-5% annually, per FHFA data)

The Friday Truth Bomb: When you actually run these numbers correctly, buying often becomes cheaper than renting after 3-7 years, even at today's rates. The break-even timeline depends on your specific market, but most online calculators (like Bankrate's tool) will show you the math. ๐Ÿ“Š

The Gotcha: This assumes you'll stay in the home long enough to hit that break-even point. If you're moving in 2 years, renting probably wins because of transaction costs (closing costs, realtor commissions, etc.). But if you're settling in for 5+ years? The math usually favors buying. ๐Ÿก

Action Item for Your Weekend: Go to NYT's calculator or Bankrate's calculator and plug in YOUR actual numbers. Not generic assumptionsโ€”your real rent, the actual homes you're considering, your tax bracket. The results might surprise you. ๐ŸŽฏ

๐Ÿ˜๏ธ For the STR Operators: The December Setup Strategy

Alright STR folks, listen up. Everyone thinks buying a short-term rental in December is crazy because "it's not summer" and "who books Airbnbs in winter?" Those people are leaving money on the table. Here's why December is actually strategic: ๐Ÿ’ฐ

1. New Year's Bookings Are MASSIVE
January 1-7 is one of the highest-booking weeks of the entire year for STRs. People escape their families, take "New Year New Me" trips, and book last-minute holiday extensions. If you close in December, you literally own the property for the highest-demand week. According to AirDNA's seasonal data, New Year's week can generate 2-3x normal revenue in many markets. ๐Ÿ“ˆ

2. Tax Year = Immediate Depreciation
Buy an STR in December, and you can depreciate the entire building value (27.5 years) starting in 2025. Or better yet, do a cost segregation study and accelerate 20-40% of the property's value into immediate deductions. We're talking potentially five-figure tax savings for buying just 2 weeks earlier than January. ๐Ÿ’ธ

3. Furnishing with 0% Interest
Here's a move most people don't know about: Once you close, you need to furnish and stage the property anyway. Our partner offers 0% interest funding for STR furnishing and renovations. Yes, you read that right. Zero percent. It's basically free money for up to 12 months, which gives your property time to generate revenue before you even have to pay back the furnishing costs. ๐Ÿ›‹๏ธ

4. Less Competition for Good Properties
Most STR buyers are on vacation themselves or waiting until "after the holidays" to start looking. That means motivated sellers and less bidding competition. Talk to our STR loan specialists about properties that are sitting on market right now with zero offers. These are the deals. ๐ŸŽ

The Smart Play: Start your search this weekend. Run the numbers on 3-5 properties. Get pre-approved with an STR-savvy lender here. Close before year-end. Furnish with 0% financing. List on Airbnb for New Year's. Cash flow in January. Do the cost seg study in February. Write off massive depreciation on your 2025 taxes in April. That's the playbook. ๐Ÿ“‹

๐Ÿ’ณ Friday Finance Hack: The "Debt Avalanche with a Twist" Method

๐ŸงŠ Why Traditional Debt Payoff Advice is Incomplete

You've heard the standard advice: Pay off high-interest debt first (debt avalanche) or pay off smallest balances first for psychological wins (debt snowball). But here's what neither method accounts for: the opportunity cost of your money. ๐Ÿ’ฐ

The Traditional Avalanche: Pay off credit card at 24% interest before student loans at 6% interest. Makes sense mathematically, right?

The Twist: What if you could get a better return by investing that money instead? Here's the framework that sophisticated investors actually use: ๐Ÿงฎ

Step 1: Calculate Your "Opportunity Rate"
This is what you could reasonably earn if you invested that money instead. Historical S&P 500 returns are around 10% annually (per Investopedia's data). Let's use 8% to be conservative. ๐Ÿ“Š

Step 2: Compare After-Tax Costs
- Credit card debt at 24%? Not tax-deductible. You're paying 24%.
- Mortgage at 6.26%? Tax-deductible (if you itemize). After-tax cost might be 4.5-5%.
- Student loans at 6%? Not currently deductible (deduction phased out for most people after 2021).
- 401(k) match? That's literally free moneyโ€”100%+ return. ๐ŸŽฏ

Step 3: The Priority Order
According to financial experts, here's the actual optimal order:

  1. Max out 401(k) match first (free money beats everything)
  2. Emergency fund ($1,000-2,000 minimum to avoid more debt)
  3. Debt above your opportunity rate (credit cards, personal loans, anything >8%)
  4. Max retirement accounts (401k, IRA, etc.)
  5. Debt between 5-8% (could go either way depending on risk tolerance)
  6. Save for down payment if you're renting (because of that rent vs. buy math above)
  7. Debt under 5% (student loans, mortgageโ€”pay minimums and invest the rest)

The Controversial Part: Under this framework, paying off a 3% student loan early while not maxing your retirement accounts is mathematically costing you money. The difference between 3% and 8% compounds to six figures over 30 years. Run the numbers yourselfโ€”it's eye-opening. ๐Ÿ‘€

Friday Action Item: List all your debts with their interest rates. Then calculate the after-tax cost of each (mortgage interest is deductible if you itemize, everything else probably isn't). Then compare to 8%. Anything above 8%? Aggressive payoff mode. Anything below 5%? Minimum payments + max your investments. It's math, not emotion. ๐Ÿงฎ

The Caveat: This assumes you actually WILL invest the difference. If you're someone who will just spend it, then ignore everything above and use the traditional avalanche method. Self-awareness > optimal math. ๐Ÿ˜…

๐Ÿ“Š Market Intel: What's Moving Behind the Scenes

Let's talk about what's actually happening in the market this week, beyond just today's rate movement: ๐Ÿ”

Bond Market is Watching Inflation Like a Hawk
The 10-year Treasury yield (which mortgage rates follow) has been bouncing between 4.2% and 4.4% all week. According to CNBC's bond market data, traders are pricing in expectations that the Fed might cut rates in early 2026, but they're not betting the farm on it. Translation: Rates will likely stay in this 6-6.5% range through year-end unless something dramatic happens. ๐Ÿ“ˆ

Inventory is Finally Loosening
Realtor.com's latest data shows active listings up 13% compared to last December. That's meaningful. More inventory = more options = slightly more negotiating power for buyers. The "lock-in effect" (people trapped by low rates refusing to sell) is slowly unwinding as people realize life happens regardless of interest rates. ๐Ÿ˜๏ธ

December Closings are Time-Sensitive
Here's what most people don't realize: lenders take days off between December 24-January 1st. Not everyone, but enough people that processing slows to a crawl. If you need to close before year-end, you're essentially working with a December 20th deadline for any final documents or funding. That's 8 days away. Just FYI. โฐ

Appraisals Are Taking Longer
Holiday season means appraisers are busier (year-end rush) and also taking time off (holidays). Industry data shows appraisal timelines stretching from 7-10 days to 14-21 days in December. Build in buffer time if you're under contract. ๐Ÿ“…

๐ŸŽฏ Your Weekend Homework (Only If You Want To)

Look, we're not your boss. Do whatever you want this weekend. But IF you're serious about making moves before year-end, here's your action plan: ๐Ÿ“‹

Saturday Morning (30 minutes):

Saturday Afternoon (if you're bored):

Sunday (if you're really motivated):

๐ŸŒŸ The Friday Bottom Line

Rates dropped 4 basis points today, which is nice. But here's what matters more: you have 13 days left to close on properties that will count for 2025 tax purposes. That's 13 days to lock in depreciation, 13 days to start building equity, 13 days to stop throwing rent money into the void. โฐ

Is 6.26% perfect? No. Is it workable? Absolutely. And remember what we covered todayโ€”when you factor in tax benefits, appreciation, and principal paydown, owning at 6.26% often beats renting at any rate if you're staying put for more than 5 years. The math doesn't lie, even if it's not as sexy as 3% rates were. ๐Ÿงฎ

Plus, all those people waiting for "perfect conditions"? They've been waiting since 2022, watching prices climb 15-20% while they saved a couple points on interest. Don't be that person. Do the math, make the move, adjust later if needed. ๐Ÿ“Š

Also, seriously, if you're an STR investor and you're not looking at December deals, you're leaving money on the table. Like, actual five-figure amounts of money. Just saying. ๐Ÿ’ธ

The Lending Letter
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Happy Friday! We'll see you tomorrow (Saturday) for your weekend edition! ๐ŸŽ‰

Disclaimer: This newsletter is for informational and entertainment purposes only. Rates and terms vary by lender and borrower qualifications. Always consult with a licensed mortgage professional, tax advisor, and financial planner for your specific situation. The investment strategies and debt payoff methods discussed require careful consideration of your personal financial situation, risk tolerance, and goals. Past performance doesn't guarantee future results.