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- Dec 20: Die Hard Is a Christmas Movie, and 6.25% Is a Workable Rate ๐
Dec 20: Die Hard Is a Christmas Movie, and 6.25% Is a Workable Rate ๐
Saturday Chill Session: Markets Closed, But Opportunities Are Still Open
๐ The Lending Letter ๐
Saturday Chill Session: Markets Closed, But Opportunities Are Still Open
Happy Saturday! ๐ Four days until Christmas, and while most people are frantically wrapping presents or arguing about whether Die Hard is a Christmas movie (it is, fight me), let's talk about something way more interesting: what happened with rates this week and why next week could be wild.
Markets are closed today, so we're looking at Friday's final numbers. Spoiler alert: rates ticked up slightly, but before you stress-eat another cookie, let me explain why this might actually set up an interesting play for anyone looking to make moves in early 2026. ๐ช
Up +0.03% from Thursday
๐ The Christmas Week Market Reality
Here's what you need to know: mortgage rates closed Friday at 6.25%, up just a hair from Thursday. According to Mortgage News Daily's analysis, this tiny uptick is mostly noiseโbond markets are getting light heading into the holiday, and traders are already mentally checked out. ๐๏ธ
The real story? We're in the dead zone. That beautiful period between Christmas and New Year's where serious business slows down, but opportunities for smart buyers and investors actually heat up. Think of it like Black Friday for real estateโeveryone else is distracted, so the people still paying attention get the good deals. ๐ฏ
๐ฎ What's Coming in 2026?
The Federal Reserve is expected to meet again in late January, and while nobody has a crystal ball, the Fed's economic projections suggest they're watching inflation data like hawks watching field mice. Translation: early 2026 could bring some rate movement, but whether that's up or down depends on data we haven't seen yet. ๐
My take? If you're on the fence about making a move, use this holiday lull to get your ducks in a row. Because when everyone comes back from vacation in January, the competition might heat up fast. โก
๐ฏ Holiday Lender Promos: Strike While Everyone's Distracted
๐ก Ready to Make Your Move? Whether you're eyeing your dream home or building your rental empire, lenders are actually more motivated right now than you'd think. Year-end quotas are real, folks. Fill out this quick form and we'll connect you with lenders who want to close deals before their holiday break ends.
๐ผ Investment Property Players: Smart money knows the holiday season is when motivated sellers emerge. Less competition + anxious sellers = negotiation gold. Connect with investment property specialists here who understand that closing before December 31st means deductions start immediately.
๐๏ธ Short-Term Rental Enthusiasts: Planning your STR empire for 2026? The best properties get snatched up when everyone's sleeping on them. Talk to our STR loan specialists here about financing strategies that actually make sense for vacation rentals.
๐ง Education Station: Understanding Rate Locks in Volatile Times
Let's talk about something that confuses almost everyone but becomes super important when rates are bouncing around: rate locks. And no, this isn't your standard "lock in your rate!" sales pitch. This is actually interesting. ๐
Here's the deal: A rate lock is a commitment from your lender to honor a specific interest rate for a set period (usually 30-60 days). But here's what most people don't know...
๐ก The Rate Lock Strategy Nobody Talks About
Float-Down Options Are a Thing: Some lenders offer what's called a "float-down" provision. According to the CFPB's guidance, this lets you lock in today's rate but adjust down if rates drop before you close. It usually costs a small fee (0.25-0.5% of loan amount), but in a volatile market, that's basically insurance. ๐ก๏ธ
Longer Locks Cost More: Here's the math most people skip: a 30-day rate lock might give you 6.25%, but a 60-day lock on the same day could be 6.375%. Why? Lenders are taking on more risk by guaranteeing that rate longer. Bankrate's analysis shows this premium typically runs 0.125% to 0.25% per 30-day extension. ๐
The Holiday Season Play: Right now, with markets thin and rates potentially moving in early 2026, consider locking early if you're closing in January. Yes, you might pay a small premium for the extra time, but if rates jump after the holidays (like they've done in previous years), Freddie Mac's historical data shows that premium could save you thousands. โฐ
Pro Tip: Ask your lender about "free" rate lock extensions if your closing gets delayed. Most will give you 7-15 days for free if it's not your fault. After that, you're usually paying around 0.25% for another 15 days. Know the rules before you need them. ๐ฏ
๐๏ธ For Real Estate Investors: The Year-End Tax Scramble
OK, real talk time. We've got 10 days left in 2025. If you're a real estate investor and you haven't optimized your tax situation yet, you're not aloneโbut you're running out of time. Let's fix that. ๐
1. Cost Segregation Before Year-End = Five-Figure Tax Savings
If you bought any investment property in 2025, cost segregation is your secret weapon. This isn't some shady loopholeโit's an IRS-approved method to accelerate depreciation. According to IRS Publication 946, you can reclassify parts of your property (flooring, fixtures, landscaping) from 27.5-year depreciation to 5, 7, or 15-year schedules. ๐ฐ
Translation? Instead of deducting $14,500/year on a $400K rental property, you might deduct $50,000+ in year one. That's $10,000-$15,000 back in your pocket if you're in the 30-35% tax bracket. Get a cost seg estimate from our partner here before December 31st. No joke, this pays for itself immediately. ๐
2. The STR Bonus Depreciation Play
Here's something wild: if you own a short-term rental (average guest stay under 7 days), it's classified as a business, not a rental property. Why does this matter? You might qualify for bonus depreciation that traditional rental properties can't touch. The IRS rules allow immediate expensing on a huge chunk of your property's value. ๐ฏ
If you're thinking about STR investing, our STR specialists know exactly how to structure these deals for maximum tax efficiency. And if you need to furnish your property? We've got a 0% interest funding partner that makes the setup costs way less painful. ๐๏ธ
3. The December Closing Advantage
Close on an investment property between now and December 31st, and all your deductions start in 2025โeven if you only owned it for a week. Mortgage interest, property taxes, depreciation, operating expenses... all deductible in 2025. That's like getting a 10-month head start on tax savings. โก
Sellers still on the market right now? They're motivated. Either they overpriced originally, had a deal fall through, or need to close for their own year-end reasons. Connect with investment property specialists who know how to spot these opportunities and close fast. ๐ฏ
๐ฐ Personal Finance Hack: The Lazy Person's Tax-Loss Harvesting
๐ Turn Your 2025 Investment Losses Into Real Money
If you've got investments in a taxable brokerage account (not your IRA or 401k), this section could literally save you thousands before December 31st. It's called tax-loss harvesting, and it's way simpler than it sounds. ๐งฎ
Here's How It Works:
Got any stocks or funds that are down in 2025? Sell them before December 31st. That "loss" on paper becomes a real deduction against your other investment gains. According to IRS rules (Topic 409), you can:
โข Offset unlimited capital gains: If you sold a rental property or stocks at a profit in 2025, harvest losses to offset them dollar-for-dollar. No limit. ๐ธ
โข Deduct $3,000 against ordinary income: Even if you have no gains, you can still reduce your regular income by up to $3,000/year ($1,500 if married filing separately). That's $900-$1,200 back in your pocket depending on your tax bracket. ๐ฏ
โข Carry forward unused losses forever: Got more than $3,000 in losses? Roll them forward to 2026, 2027, and beyond. They never expire. According to Schwab's analysis, this creates a "tax shield" you can use strategically for years. ๐ก๏ธ
The Wash Sale Rule (Don't Mess This Up):
You can't sell a stock at a loss and then immediately buy it back. The IRS isn't stupid. If you rebuy the same (or "substantially identical") security within 30 days before or after the sale, the loss gets disallowed. So you have to wait 31 days OR buy something similar but not identical. โฐ
The Lazy Genius Approach:
1. Review your taxable accounts now (not your IRAsโthis doesn't apply there)
2. Find positions down 10% or more from what you paid
3. Sell them before December 31 to lock in the loss
4. Either wait 31 days to rebuy, or immediately buy a similar (but not identical) fund
5. Use losses to offset gains or deduct against regular income
Real Example: You bought $10,000 of Tech Stock X in January, it's now worth $7,000. You sell it on December 30th for a $3,000 loss. You also sold a rental property in 2025 with a $20,000 capital gain. That $3,000 loss reduces your taxable gain to $17,000. If you're in the 30% bracket, you just saved $900 in taxes. ๐ฐ
Even better: On January 21, 2026 (31+ days later), you can rebuy Tech Stock X if you still believe in it. You've saved $900 in real money, and you're back in the same position you were before. NerdWallet's calculator can help you run your own numbers. ๐
Action Item: You've got 10 days. Log into your brokerage account, find your losers, and make some strategic moves. This is literally free money sitting on the table. Don't leave it there. ๐
๐ Weekend Market Thoughts: What Happened This Week
Let's zoom out and look at the bigger picture:
Rates Stayed Relatively Stable
Despite all the noise and predictions, Mortgage News Daily's data shows rates mostly held in the 6.20%-6.30% range this week. That's actually good newsโstability beats volatility any day of the week. ๐
Housing Inventory Creeping Up
Realtor.com's latest numbers show active listings continue to slowly increase year-over-year. More inventory = more options = better negotiating position for buyers. The "impossible market" narrative is finally starting to crack. ๐๏ธ
Holiday Slowdown is Real
Transaction volume always drops between Thanksgiving and New Year's. But according to NAR data, the serious buyers and sellers still active during this period tend to actually close deals. Less tire-kicking, more action. If you're making moves now, you're competing with other serious players, not just browsers. ๐ฏ
๐ค The Big Question: Should You Wait for 2026?
Everyone asks this. Let me give you the honest answer:
Nobody knows what rates will do. Anyone who tells you they do is lying or selling something. But here's what we DO know:
๐ Lower rates = more competition: When rates drop, buyers flood back into the market. That perfect property you're eyeing? It'll have 8 offers by noon. Zillow's research consistently shows inverse correlation between rates and bidding wars.
๐ Higher rates = negotiating power: At 6.25%, many would-be buyers are sitting on the sidelines. That means sellers are more willing to negotiate, cover closing costs, do repairs, or drop their price. This is actual leverage you can use RIGHT NOW. ๐ช
๐ You can always refinance: Buy the house, not the rate. If rates drop significantly in 2026 or 2027, refinancing is straightforward. But you can't go back in time and buy that investment property someone else grabbed while you were "waiting for better conditions." โฐ
The Math: Even if rates drop 0.75% next year, if home prices rise 5% (conservative estimate based on Freddie Mac forecasts), you're paying more for the same house. The interest savings get eaten by higher purchase price. Run the numbersโit's often a wash or worse. ๐
๐ฏ Your Year-End Action Plan:
Still thinking about making moves before 2026? Here's your complete resource list:
- ๐ก Primary Residence or Any Loan:Get matched with lenders here
- ๐ผ Investment Property Financing:Connect with specialists here
- ๐๏ธ Short-Term Rental Loans:Talk to STR experts here
- ๐ Cost Segregation Study:Get your estimate here
- ๐๏ธ 0% Interest Property Furnishing:Apply for funding here
๐ The Bottom Line
Look, I get it. The holidays are stressful enough without thinking about mortgages and tax strategies. But here's the thing: the people who build wealth are the ones who act when everyone else is checked out. ๐ฏ
We've got 10 days left in 2025. Rates are at 6.25%โnot amazing, but definitely workable. Inventory is better than it was. Sellers are motivated. And tax advantages are sitting there waiting to be claimed. โฐ
While everyone else is arguing about Christmas movies and eating leftover cookies, the smart money is making moves. According to real estate investing data, some of the best deals of the year happen in Decemberโsimply because there's less competition. ๐ฐ
So yeah, enjoy your weekend. Watch Die Hard (the ultimate Christmas movie). Eat too much food. But also? Maybe spend 10 minutes reviewing your investment portfolio for tax-loss harvesting opportunities. Or reaching out to see what loan options look like. Or getting that cost seg analysis done before year-end. ๐
Future you will thank present you. Trust me on this one. ๐
The Lending Letter
๐ฌ Your daily dose of mortgage market reality
๐ Because rates move fast, and so should you
We'll be back in your inbox Monday, December 23rd! (Markets reopen Monday, so we'll have fresh data and new opportunities to discuss.)
Disclaimer: This newsletter is for informational and entertainment purposes only. Mortgage rates and terms vary by lender, property type, and borrower qualifications. Tax strategies discussed should be reviewed with a qualified tax professional for your specific situation. Past performance doesn't guarantee future results. The author may or may not think Die Hard is a Christmas movie but will defend your right to be wrong about it.