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Jan 12: A weekend rate tick and the "Lock Strategy" 📊

Rates moved to 6.01%, but it’s not time to panic. We break down the "Float-Down" option and the timing of your next rate lock.

Author

Alex Veytsman
January 12, 2026

🎯 The Lending Letter 🏠

New Year, Slightly Higher Rates – But Here's Why You Shouldn't Panic

Happy Monday! ☕ Welcome to the second full week of 2026. While most people are still pretending they're going to stick to their New Year's resolutions, we're here talking about what actually matters: what happened to mortgage rates over the weekend. Spoiler alert: they went up. But before you panic, let's break down what this means. 📊

📊 TODAY'S 30-YEAR FIXED RATE
6.01%
Up +0.02% from January 9 | Mortgage News Daily

🎢 The Weekend Rate Bump: What You Need to Know

So rates ticked up 2 basis points since Thursday. Is this a big deal? Not really. Think of it like your weight fluctuating a couple pounds after the weekend – it's movement, but it's not a trend (yet). 🤷

Here's what's actually happening: The bond market spent the holiday-shortened week digesting economic data, and lenders are being cautious as they head into what could be a busy Q1. With inflation still stubborn and the Fed keeping rates elevated, mortgage rates are hanging out in this 6% zone like that friend who says they're "leaving the party soon" but is still there three hours later. 😅

📈 The Q1 Reality Check

January typically sees a surge in purchase activity as people who waited through the holidays finally pull the trigger. More demand + cautious lenders = rates that don't want to budge much. But here's the silver lining: we're still way below where we were in late 2023, and inventory is slowly improving. Translation: It's a more balanced market than it's been in years. 🎯

💰 Lender Promos: Let's Make Things Happen

🏠 Shopping for Any Type of Property? First-time buyer, move-up purchase, or your next rental – doesn't matter. Fill out this quick form and we'll connect you with lenders who are actually competing for your business. January is when they're hunting for volume, which means better deals for you.

🏢 Investment Property Goals for 2026? Smart move. While everyone else is making resolutions they'll break by February, you're building actual wealth. Connect with investment property specialists here who understand that cash flow is king and appreciation is the cherry on top. 👑

🏖️ Short-Term Rental Empire in the Works? Whether it's your first Airbnb or your fifth, get connected with STR loan specialists here who know exactly how to structure deals that maximize your ROI. Spring booking season is coming faster than you think. ⏰

🧠 Educational Corner: The Mortgage Rate Lock Strategy

Let's talk about something most people mess up: when and how long to lock your mortgage rate. This is one of those decisions that can save or cost you thousands, and barely anyone understands it properly. 🎓

First, the basics: A rate lock means your lender guarantees you a specific interest rate for a set period (usually 30, 45, or 60 days). If rates go up during that time, you're protected. If they go down... well, that's where it gets interesting. 🤔

💡 The Strategy Most People Miss

The Float-Down Option: Many lenders offer a "float-down" provision for an extra fee (usually 0.125% to 0.25% of the loan amount). According to Bankrate's analysis, this lets you lock in your rate but still capture a lower rate if the market improves significantly before closing.

When Does This Make Sense?
If you're locking during a volatile period (like right now, with inflation data coming out weekly and the Fed making noise), a float-down can be insurance worth paying for. On a $400,000 loan, paying $500-1,000 for the option to capture a rate drop is often smart money. 💰

The Timing Game:
Here's where most people screw up: They lock too early or too late. Lock too early (like when you first apply), and you might need an expensive extension if your closing gets delayed. Lock too late (like when you're in underwriting), and you're gambling with potentially thousands of dollars. 🎰

The Sweet Spot:
Generally, you want to lock once you're confident about your closing date (usually when you're in contract and have a solid timeline). For purchases, that's often 30-45 days out. For refinances where you control the timeline, you can be more strategic and watch the market for a few days before pulling the trigger. 📊

Pro Tip for Right Now:
With rates at 6.01% and the market feeling somewhat stable, if you're 30-45 days from closing, this might be a decent time to lock. We're not in a falling rate environment, but we're also not in a rapidly rising one. It's like finding a parking spot that's "good enough" – sometimes you just take it and move on with your life. 🅿️

🏘️ For the Real Estate Investors: The January Opportunity Window

Listen, January is weird for real estate. It's like the market is stretching after a long nap – things are waking up, but slowly. And that creates some interesting opportunities. 👀

1. Inventory is Fresh
Sellers who listed over the holidays are still on the market, but now they're competing with a wave of new January listings. According to Realtor.com data, January typically sees a 15-20% increase in new listings compared to December. More options = more negotiating power. 🤝

2. Motivated Sellers Are Identifiable
Anyone who kept their listing active through the holidays is MOTIVATED. Like, "I really need this to happen" motivated. These are the deals where you can negotiate repairs, closing cost credits, or better terms because the seller wants certainty over squeezing every last dollar. 💵

3. The STR Spring Setup
Buy in January, get it ready in February/March, and you're live for the spring and summer booking season. Miss this window, and you're watching other owners cash in while you're still shopping. Talk to our STR specialists about properties that are move-in ready or need minimal work to be rental-ready. Time kills deals, and in STR, it also kills potential revenue. ⏱️

Level Up Your Investment Game:

  • 📊 Already closed on a property in late 2025? Get a cost segregation study before you file your taxes. We're talking accelerated depreciation that could reduce your 2025 tax bill by tens of thousands. The deadline is April 15th – don't leave this money on the table.
  • 🛋️ Need to furnish and outfit your property? Our partner offers 0% interest funding for up to 12 months. It's literally free money to make your property guest-ready.

🎓 Personal Finance Hack: The Credit Card Arbitrage Play

💳 Making Banks Pay You Instead

Here's a strategy that requires discipline but can generate serious returns: Credit card arbitrage with promotional 0% APR offers. Before you roll your eyes, hear me out. 🧠

How It Works:
Many cards offer 0% APR on balance transfers or purchases for 12-21 months. The smart play? Take that free money and park it in a high-yield savings account or money market fund earning 4-5% while you pay zero interest. 💰

The Math:
Let's say you transfer $20,000 at 0% APR for 18 months (typical balance transfer fee is 3%, so $600 upfront). Park that $19,400 in a savings account earning 4.5%:
• Interest earned over 18 months: ~$1,310
• Cost of transfer: $600
• Net profit: ~$710 for basically doing nothing. 📈

The Catches (Because There Are Always Catches):

1. You MUST Pay It Off Before the Promo Ends
Set up automatic payments to pay the balance in full by month 17. Miss the deadline, and you're paying retroactive interest at 25%+. According to Investopedia's guide on credit arbitrage, this is where most people mess up. Don't be most people. ⚠️

2. Your Credit Utilization Will Spike
Using $20,000 of available credit will temporarily hurt your credit score. If you're planning to apply for a mortgage in the next 6 months, skip this strategy. If you're not, the temporary dip is worth the free money. FICO scores recover quickly once balances drop.

3. This Requires Actual Discipline
If you see $20,000 in your checking account and think "road trip to Vegas," this isn't for you. The money needs to sit untouched, earning interest, until you pay off the card. Set it and forget it. 🔒

Best Cards for This Right Now:
Look for cards offering 15+ months at 0% with balance transfer fees of 3% or less. NerdWallet tracks these offers in real-time. The longest promotional periods usually happen in Q1, so January is actually perfect timing for this play. 🎯

Alternative Play:
Use a 0% purchase APR card for planned large expenses (new appliances, furniture, car repairs), but instead of spending your cash, invest it for the duration of the promo period. Same concept, different execution. Just make sure you actually have the cash set aside. 💵

📊 Market Intel: What the Data Is Actually Saying

Let's talk real numbers, not the hype you see in headlines:

Inventory Continues to Normalize
We're seeing more homes hit the market as sellers realize rates aren't going back to 3% anytime soon. Zillow's latest data shows inventory is up about 25% compared to early 2024. Still below pre-pandemic levels, but we're moving in the right direction. Translation: Buyers have actual choices now. 🏘️

Price Appreciation is Sustainable
According to Freddie Mac's research, home prices are growing at about 4-5% annually – that's healthy, sustainable growth. Not the insane 20% jumps that price people out of markets, but steady wealth building. This is what a normal market looks like. 📈

Days on Market Are Creeping Up
Homes are sitting on the market slightly longer than they were last year. NAR data shows this is because buyers are being more selective and sellers are (slowly) accepting the new reality. For buyers, this means less pressure to waive inspections and write love letters. For sellers, it means pricing right from day one matters more than ever. ⏱️

🎯 The "Should I Buy Now or Wait?" Question

Someone asks this every single day, so let's address it with actual logic instead of hype:

People waiting for "better rates" need to understand something: Lower rates attract more buyers. If rates drop to 5%, you won't be competing against the current buyer pool – you'll be competing against everyone who's been sitting on the sidelines waiting for lower rates. According to Harvard's Joint Center for Housing Studies, this is what creates bidding wars and rapid price appreciation. 🏃

Here's the better way to think about it: If you find the right property at the right price today at 6.01%, you can always refinance later if rates drop significantly. But you can't go back in time and buy that property after someone else already did. 🕐

The Real Calculation:
Run the numbers on the actual property, not the theoretical "what if rates drop" scenario. Is the cash flow positive on an investment property at 6%? Does the payment work for your budget on a primary residence? If yes, the rest is just noise. If you're an investor delaying purchases because you think rates might drop 50 basis points, you're potentially missing months of rental income and appreciation. That's a real cost. 💸

🚀 Ready to Make Moves in 2026?

Stop planning and start doing:

🌟 The Bottom Line

Rates ticked up a tiny bit. The world didn't end. The market is functioning normally for the first time in years, which means smart, strategic buyers are finding opportunities while everyone else is overthinking things. 🎯

At 6.01%, mortgages are hardly "cheap," but they're workable. And remember: real estate investing has always been about leverage, tax advantages, and cash flow – not about getting the absolute lowest rate possible. Even at 8-9% in the 1990s, people built wealth with rental properties. It's about the strategy, not the rate. 💡

January is when people set intentions. February is when people actually do things. Don't be the person still "thinking about it" in March while watching others execute. The perfect time was yesterday. The second best time is today. 🚀

Stay sharp, stay focused, and remember: Action beats overthinking every single time. Even when rates go up 2 whole basis points. 😉

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See you tomorrow (Tuesday) for another dose of mortgage market reality!

Disclaimer: This newsletter is for informational and entertainment purposes only. Mortgage rates and terms vary by lender and borrower qualifications. Credit card arbitrage requires discipline and careful planning. Always consult with licensed financial professionals and tax advisors for your specific situation. Past performance doesn't guarantee future results.