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- Jan 20: 🏛️ While History Was Made, Rates Moved (Here's What You Need to Know)
Jan 20: 🏛️ While History Was Made, Rates Moved (Here's What You Need to Know)
Inauguration Day Edition: Rates Tick Up, Markets Watch Closely
🏛️ The Lending Letter 🏡
Inauguration Day Edition: Rates Tick Up, Markets Watch Closely
Happy Inauguration Day! 🇺🇸 While history is being made in Washington D.C., mortgage rates are doing their own thing—and spoiler alert, they moved up slightly today. But before you panic-scroll through doomsday headlines, let's break down what's actually happening with your money and what today's political transition means for borrowers.
🎯 What's Up With That 14-Basis-Point Jump?
So rates moved up 0.14% today. That's 14 basis points for the finance nerds out there (hi, we see you 👋). Is it the inauguration? Sort of. Is it inflation data? Also sort of. Is it bond markets being dramatic? Absolutely. 📈
Here's what's happening: The bond market doesn't love uncertainty, and new administrations—regardless of party—create uncertainty. Investors are recalibrating their expectations around trade policy, fiscal spending, and the Federal Reserve's next moves. It's like everyone's playing 4D chess, except the pieces are billions of dollars and nobody really knows the rules. 🤔
The good news? We're still hovering in the low 6% range, which is significantly better than where we were just a few months ago. Think of it like this: you wanted the concert ticket for $50, but it's $62. Not ideal, but you're still going to the concert. 🎸
💰 Lender Promos: Strike While the Iron's Hot
🏠 Looking for a Loan on Any Property? Whether you're eyeing your first home or adding to your portfolio, fill out this quick form to connect with lenders who understand the current market—and how to structure deals that actually make sense in 2026.
🏢 Investment Property Goals? Smart money is still flowing into rental properties, and for good reason. Despite rate fluctuations, the fundamentals haven't changed: people need places to live. Connect with investment specialists here who can show you the numbers that matter.
🏖️ STR/Airbnb Enthusiast? 2026 could be a monster year for short-term rentals as travel rebounds. Get matched with STR loan specialists who know exactly how to underwrite these deals for maximum cash flow.
🧠 Educational Corner: How Presidential Policies Actually Affect Mortgage Rates
Everyone wants to know: "Will the new administration make my mortgage cheaper?" Fair question. Complicated answer. Let's break it down. 🎓
🏛️ The Presidential Playbook and Your Rate
Spoiler Alert: The President doesn't control mortgage rates directly. Shocking, we know. But presidential policies do influence the economic conditions that affect rates. Here's how:
1. Trade and Tariff Policy
When administrations implement tariffs or trade restrictions, it can create inflationary pressure. More inflation typically means higher mortgage rates as bond investors demand better returns to offset that inflation. Think of it like your money losing value faster, so lenders want more compensation. 💸
2. Fiscal Spending Plans
Big infrastructure bills or tax cuts can stimulate economic growth (good!) but also increase government borrowing (complicated!). When the government issues more bonds, it competes with mortgage-backed securities for investor dollars. According to Freddie Mac's research, this competition can push mortgage rates higher. It's like when too many people want the same thing—prices go up. 🎢
3. Regulatory Changes
New administrations often adjust financial regulations. Looser mortgage lending standards can increase access to credit (more borrowers can qualify), but might also lead to riskier lending practices. Tighter standards do the opposite. The CFPB typically signals these changes well in advance, so keep an ear to the ground. 👂
4. Federal Reserve Independence
Here's where it gets spicy: the Fed is technically independent from the executive branch, but presidents appoint Fed governors. Different Fed leadership can mean different monetary policy approaches. Some are more hawkish (anti-inflation, higher rates), others more dovish (pro-growth, lower rates). The current Fed composition matters more than most people realize. 🦅
The Real Talk: Presidential policies create economic conditions that influence rates over months and years, not days and weeks. Today's tiny rate bump? That's bond traders speculating on what might happen. The actual impact of policy changes takes time to materialize. Don't make major financial decisions based on one day's movement. ⏰
🏘️ For Real Estate Investors: The January Window
Can we talk about how underrated January is for real estate investing? Everyone's recovering from the holidays, making New Year's resolutions they'll abandon by February, and generally not thinking about real estate. Which means you should be. 🎯
Why January Rocks for Investors:
1. Tax Season Motivation
Sellers who didn't unload their property in December are now staring at another year of property taxes, insurance, and maintenance costs. According to NAR data, January sellers often accept lower offers just to avoid another year of carrying costs. That's your negotiating leverage right there. 💪
2. Less Competition
While casual buyers are still in "someday" mode, serious investors are actively hunting. But there are WAY fewer of them in January than in spring. Less competition = better deals. Math is beautiful, isn't it? 🧮
3. The STR Setup Play
Buy an STR property now, and you have February and March to renovate, furnish, and optimize before the spring/summer travel season hits. Our STR specialists can help you identify markets where booking season starts early, giving you immediate cash flow. 🏖️
Level Up Your Investment Game:
• Already Own Rental Properties?Get a cost segregation study and potentially unlock massive tax deductions you didn't know existed. We're talking five-figure tax savings in some cases. It's literally found money. 💰
• Need to Furnish That STR? Stop putting it on credit cards at 24% APR. Our partner offers 0% interest funding specifically for furnishing and amenities. Yes, zero percent. No, it's not a typo. 🛋️
💡 Personal Finance Hack: The Backdoor 529 Strategy
🎓 Using 529 Plans for More Than Just College
Most people think 529 plans are just for saving for kids' college. Wrong! Thanks to recent changes in federal law, these accounts are way more flexible than most people realize. Let's get into it. 🧠
The New Superpower: 529-to-Roth IRA Rollovers
Starting in 2024, you can roll unused 529 funds directly into a Roth IRA for the beneficiary—up to $35,000 lifetime. According to IRS guidelines, this means 529 plans are now basically super-charged savings vehicles. Here's why this is huge:
• No Penalty for "Over-Saving"
Used to be, if your kid got scholarships or didn't go to college, you'd face penalties on unused 529 funds. Now? Roll it into a Roth IRA and it becomes tax-free retirement savings. This changes the risk calculation entirely. 🎯
• State Tax Deductions NOW, Tax-Free Growth Forever
Many states give you a tax deduction for 529 contributions. So you get a tax break going in, tax-free growth in the middle, and if you eventually roll to a Roth, tax-free withdrawals coming out. That's what we call a triple win. 🏆
• K-12 and Apprenticeships Count Too
You can use 529 funds for private K-12 education (up to $10,000/year) and qualified apprenticeship programs. According to Saving for College, this makes 529s useful for way more families than just those planning for traditional four-year universities. 📚
The Strategy: If you have kids (or nieces, nephews, grandkids), open a 529 now and contribute regularly. Worst case? Your kid gets scholarships and you've got a tax-advantaged retirement account for them. Best case? You've funded their education tax-free. There's really no losing scenario here. 🎁
Pro Tip: Some states offer 529 plans with ultra-low fees and great investment options. Morningstar ranks the best plans annually. Nevada and Utah consistently score high, and you don't have to live in those states to use their plans (though you might miss out on your own state's tax deduction). Do your homework! 📝
📊 Market Intel: What the Data Actually Says
Let's cut through the noise with some real numbers:
Inventory Remains Tight, But Improving
We're seeing about 15% more active listings compared to this time last year, according to Realtor.com's latest data. Still below pre-pandemic levels, but the trend is moving in the right direction. More inventory = more options = more negotiating power for buyers. 📈
Price Appreciation Continues (But at a Slower Pace)
Home prices are still climbing, but we're looking at 4-6% annual appreciation instead of the bonkers 15-20% we saw a couple years ago. Zillow's Home Value Index shows this is actually healthy—sustainable growth beats boom-bust cycles every single time. 🏡
Rental Demand Stays Strong
Even with current rates, rental properties make sense because rental vacancy rates remain near historic lows. People need places to live, and many can't or won't buy in this rate environment. If you're positioned as a landlord, you're selling a product (housing) that has consistent demand. That's a good business to be in. 🔑
🤔 Should You Lock a Rate Right Now?
If you're actively shopping for a mortgage, you're probably asking: "Should I lock now or wait?" Here's the honest answer:
Lock if: You've found the right property, the numbers work at 6.21%, and you're ready to close within 30-60 days. Trying to time rate movements is like trying to time the stock market—even professionals get it wrong constantly. 🎲
Float if: You're still shopping for properties and won't close for 60+ days. Rates could go either direction, but you're not making an immediate commitment anyway. Just know that floating comes with risk. ⚖️
The Real Strategy: Focus less on scoring the absolute lowest rate and more on finding the right property at the right price. You can always refinance later if rates drop. But you can't go back in time and buy that perfect investment property someone else bought while you were agonizing over 0.14%. Trust us, we've seen this movie before. 🎬
🎯 Ready to Make Moves in 2026?
Whether you're buying your first property or your fifteenth, having the right financing partner makes all the difference. Here's where to start:
- 🏡 Primary or Second Home:Get matched with lenders here
- 💼 Investment Property:Connect with investment specialists here
- 🏖️ STR/Airbnb Financing:Talk to STR experts here
- 💰 Tax Strategy:Cost segregation study estimate here
- 🛋️ 0% Furnishing:Fund your STR setup here
🌟 The Bottom Line
Inauguration Day brings uncertainty to markets, and markets respond to uncertainty with volatility. A 14-basis-point uptick in rates is just noise in the grand scheme of things. What matters more is your long-term strategy. 🎯
At 6.21%, mortgage rates aren't historically high—they're historically normal. We got spoiled by the 3% days, but that was the anomaly, not the norm. Real estate has built wealth for generations at rates much higher than this. The fundamentals—limited supply, strong demand, tax advantages, forced savings through principal paydown—haven't changed. 🏠
Whether you're a first-time buyer or a seasoned investor, the question isn't "Is this the perfect rate?" It's "Does this deal work at this rate?" If the answer is yes, don't overthink it. The best investments are often made when others are sitting on the sidelines waiting for "perfect conditions" that never quite arrive. 💪
Stay focused, stay informed, and remember: real wealth is built through consistent action over time, not perfect timing. Even on days when rates tick up a bit. 📈
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🚀 Because mortgage rates move fast, and so do we
See you tomorrow (Wednesday) for more mortgage market insights!
Disclaimer: This newsletter is for informational and entertainment purposes only. Rates and terms vary by lender and borrower qualifications. Always consult with licensed mortgage and tax professionals for your specific situation. The 529 strategy discussed requires understanding of your individual tax situation and long-term goals.