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- Jan 22: Rates dropped again + the tax hack you're probably missing 💰
Jan 22: Rates dropped again + the tax hack you're probably missing 💰
Rates inch down, inventory creeps up, and why January might be your secret weapon
📬 The Lending Letter 🏠
Rates Inch Down (Finally!) as January Rolls On
Happy Thursday! ☕ We're three weeks into 2026 and if you're already behind on your New Year's resolutions, don't worry—we won't judge. But here's something you CAN control: understanding what's happening with mortgage rates right now. And spoiler: there's actually some good news today. 👀
🎯 The Slow Grind Lower Continues
Okay, so a one-basis-point drop isn't exactly champagne-popping territory, but here's what matters: rates are trending in the right direction. We're now sitting at 6.19%, which is noticeably better than the 6.5%+ we were seeing not too long ago. It's like losing weight—you might not see it day-to-day, but zoom out a few weeks and suddenly your pants fit better. 👖
The bond market is currently in "wait and see" mode, digesting economic data and trying to figure out what the new administration's policies will actually mean for inflation and growth. Translation: volatility might stick around for a bit, but the overall trend? Not terrible. 📈
🗓️ January Reality Check
January is historically a weird month for real estate. Everyone's broke from the holidays, it's cold, and people are focused on gym memberships they'll abandon by February. But you know what that means? Less competition. Sellers who are still on the market right now? They're serious. And they might be willing to negotiate. 🤝
💰 Lender Promos: January Opportunities
🏠 Shopping for Any Type of Property? New year, new property portfolio? Whether it's your first home or your tenth rental, connect with motivated lenders here who are hungry to close deals in Q1.
🏢 Investment Property Game Plan? January is actually prime hunting season for investors. Tax benefits, motivated sellers, and lower competition create the perfect storm. Get matched with investment specialists here who understand cash flow like you understand caffeine.
🏖️ Building Your STR Empire? Smart investors are buying NOW for peak 2026 summer season. Connect with STR financing experts here who know exactly how to structure deals for max returns.
🧠 Educational Corner: Prepayment Penalties Explained
Let's talk about something that trips up a lot of borrowers: prepayment penalties. Because nothing says "fun Thursday morning" like discussing mortgage fine print, right? 😅
Here's the deal: A prepayment penalty is a fee you might have to pay if you pay off your mortgage early—either by refinancing, selling the property, or making large extra payments. It's basically the lender's way of saying "hey, we were counting on collecting all that interest from you." 💸
💡 What You Actually Need to Know
Most Conventional Loans Don't Have Them: According to Consumer Financial Protection Bureau guidelines, traditional residential mortgages (Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac) typically don't include prepayment penalties. That's good news for most folks. ✅
But Some Loans DO Have Them: Commercial loans, hard money loans, and some specialized investment property loans often include prepayment penalties. The logic? These are usually shorter-term loans where the lender needs to recoup costs quickly. They come in different flavors—some are "soft" (you can sell without penalty but can't refinance), others are "hard" (you're penalized for any early payoff).
The January 2026 Angle: With rates potentially dropping throughout 2026, understanding prepayment penalties is crucial if you're thinking about refinancing down the road. Imagine locking in a loan now at 6.19%, rates drop to 5.5% by summer, and then you discover you'd owe a 3% penalty to refinance. That's a $12,000 surprise on a $400K loan. Not fun. 😬
Pro Tip: Always ask about prepayment penalties BEFORE you sign. It should be clearly disclosed in your loan estimate and closing documents. If you're getting an investment property loan, negotiate this upfront. Some lenders will waive penalties or reduce them for a slightly higher rate—sometimes worth it for the flexibility.
🏘️ For STR Investors: Winter Booking Hacks
January is typically considered "off-season" for many STR markets, but smart operators know how to turn this into opportunity. Here's what's working right now:
1. The "Workcation" Phenomenon is Real
Remote work isn't going anywhere, and January is when people escape cold offices for warm destinations (or vice versa—ski properties are crushing it right now). Market your property to digital nomads looking for month-long stays. Lower nightly rate, higher occupancy, fewer turnovers. Win-win-win. 💻
2. Strategic Pricing Adjustments
Don't just drop your rates—get smart about it. Airbnb's data shows that offering weekly and monthly discounts in slower months can actually increase your RevPAR (revenue per available room). Set 15-20% discounts for 7+ night stays, and watch your calendar fill up.
3. This is Prime Acquisition Season
While you're optimizing your current properties, remember: your competition is sleeping. This is when you should be lining up financing for your next STR. Close in January/February, furnish in March, launch in April, and you're perfectly positioned for summer peak season. 🎯
Level Up Your Game:
- 📊 Accelerate deductions with a cost segregation study—this can literally save you five figures on 2025 taxes (yes, you can still do it for last year).
- 🛋️ Need to furnish that new property or upgrade an existing one? Our 0% interest funding partner makes it stupid easy. No interest = pure profit leverage.
🎓 Personal Finance Hack: The Tax-Loss Harvesting Carryforward Strategy
💰 Turn Last Year's Losses into This Year's Wins
Here's a strategy most people miss: capital loss carryforwards from 2025. If you harvested tax losses in your investment accounts last year (and you should have), those losses don't just disappear if you didn't use them all. They carry forward indefinitely. 📅
How This Actually Works: Let's say you had $20,000 in capital losses in 2025 from some stocks that tanked (RIP to your meme stock portfolio). The IRS lets you deduct $3,000 against ordinary income in 2025. That leaves $17,000 in carryforward losses for 2026 and beyond.
The Real Estate Connection: Here's where it gets interesting for property investors. If you sell a rental property in 2026 and face capital gains, you can use those carryforward losses to offset them. According to IRS Publication 550, capital losses can offset capital gains dollar-for-dollar before you're limited to the $3,000 per year deduction against ordinary income.
Strategic Application: Planning to sell a property this year? Dig out your 2025 tax return (or check with your CPA) to see if you have loss carryforwards. That $17,000 could offset gains from your property sale, potentially saving you thousands in taxes. This is completely legal and encouraged by the tax code. 🎯
The January Action Item: Most people forget about their carryforward losses because they're not front-of-mind. But if you're doing tax planning for 2026 (which you should be in January), this is the perfect time to strategize. Maybe you accelerate a property sale to use those losses. Maybe you harvest more losses this year to offset a big gain. The point is: losses aren't just losses—they're future tax savings waiting to happen.
Real-World Example: You inherited $17K in loss carryforwards from 2025. You sell a rental property in 2026 with a $50K capital gain. Without the carryforwards, you'd owe ~$7,500 in federal capital gains tax (15% rate). With the carryforwards, your taxable gain drops to $33K, saving you $2,550. That's a nice chunk of change you can reinvest. Or, you know, spend on something fun. We don't judge. 🍾
📊 Market Intel: What the Data is Telling Us
Let's talk about what's actually happening in the market right now, January 2026 edition:
Inventory is Creeping Higher
Good news for buyers: Active listings continue to improve compared to the drought we saw in 2023-2024. We're not back to "normal" levels, but it's trending in the right direction. More options = more negotiating leverage. Use it wisely. 🔨
Rates Matter Less Than You Think
Here's a truth bomb: the difference between a 6.19% rate and a 6.50% rate on a $400K loan is about $72/month. Over 30 years, sure, that adds up. But in the context of buying the RIGHT property vs. waiting for the PERFECT rate? Research consistently shows that timing the market for rates often costs more in appreciation than you save in interest. 📊
Tax Season Creates Opportunity
It's January, which means sellers are getting their 2025 tax information and realizing how much they paid in property taxes, maintenance, and carrying costs on properties that didn't sell. This creates motivated sellers. NAR data shows price reductions tick up in January as reality sets in. Keep your eyes peeled. 👀
🔮 The "Should I Wait?" Question
Someone asks us this every single day, so let's address it directly: Should you wait for lower rates?
Here's the honest answer: Nobody knows where rates are going. Economists who get paid six figures to predict this stuff are wrong more often than a broken clock (which is right twice a day, for those keeping score). 🕐
What we DO know:
• You Can Refinance Later: If rates drop significantly, you can refinance. Yes, there are costs involved, but if rates drop a full point or more, the savings more than justify the refi fees. According to Bankrate's analysis, a 0.75% rate drop typically justifies a refinance.
• You Can't Get Time Back: Every month you wait is another month of potential rent income lost (for investors) or another month paying someone else's mortgage (for homebuyers). Time is literally money in real estate.
• Prices Rise With Lower Rates: This is the part people miss. When rates drop, more buyers enter the market, and prices typically rise. You might save $100/month on interest but pay $20,000 more for the house. Net result? Often a wash or worse. 🤷
The Bottom Line: Buy when you find the right property at the right price. The "perfect" rate doesn't exist, and waiting for it usually costs more than you'd save.
🎯 Ready to Make Moves in 2026?
Stop overthinking it and start taking action:
- 🏡 Primary or Second Home:Get pre-approved here
- 💼 Investment Property Financing:Connect with specialists here
- 🏖️ STR/Vacation Rental Loans:Talk to STR experts here
- 💰 Massive Tax Savings:Cost seg study estimate here
- 🛋️ Furnish Your Property (0% Interest):Get funding here
🌟 The Bottom Line
January 2026 is shaping up to be a solid month for anyone serious about real estate. Rates are gradually improving, inventory is slowly building, and most importantly, your competition is still stuck in holiday mode. 🎁
At 6.19%, we're not in the "OMG rates are so low!" territory, but we're also a far cry from the 7%+ nightmare of recent memory. And here's the thing about real estate: the fundamentals haven't changed. Leverage still works. Depreciation still offsets income. Tenants still pay your mortgage. The tax code still favors property owners.
The people who build wealth in real estate aren't the ones who wait for perfect conditions (because those don't exist). They're the ones who educate themselves, find good deals, and take calculated action. 🎯
So stop waiting for rates to hit 5% (they might not for a long time). Stop waiting for prices to crash (that's not how this works). Stop waiting for the "perfect" time. The perfect time is when you find a property that makes financial sense at the rates available right now. Everything else is just noise. 📢
Now go forth and make smart financial decisions. And maybe hit the gym while you're at it. Those New Year's resolutions aren't going to achieve themselves. 💪
The Lending Letter
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🚀 Because mortgage rates move fast, and so do we
See you tomorrow (Friday) with more mortgage market reality checks! ☕
Disclaimer: This newsletter is for informational and entertainment purposes only. Rates and terms vary by lender and borrower qualifications. Always consult with a licensed mortgage professional, financial advisor, and tax professional for your specific situation. The strategies discussed require careful consideration of your personal financial circumstances.