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Jan 6: ❄️ The "January Cheat Code" for Homebuyers

Why winter buyers are paying 8-10% less than the spring rush. Also: How to use your 2025 tax refund to build an STR empire

Author

Alex Veytsman
January 06, 2026

🎯 The Lending Letter 🏡

New Year, Same Rate Game—But With Fresh Opportunities

Happy Tuesday! ☕ Welcome to the first full week of 2026! While you're probably still accidentally writing "2025" on everything, the mortgage market is already wide awake and moving. Let's talk about what's happening right now, today, January 6th. 📅

📊 TODAY'S 30-YEAR FIXED RATE
6.20%
Up 0.01% from yesterday | According to Mortgage News Daily | January 6, 2026

📈 What's Happening Today: The First Full Week Reality Check

So rates ticked up a single basis point today to 6.20%. Before you panic, let's put this in perspective: we're talking about one one-hundredth of a percent. On a $400,000 loan, that's approximately $2.30 more per month. You spend more than that on your morning coffee. ☕

The real story? We're kicking off 2026 with rates sitting in a zone that, frankly, looked like a pipe dream six months ago. The bond market is digesting economic data as traders get back from their holiday hangovers, and lenders are actively looking for business to start the year strong. 💪

🎊 Why January Is Actually Prime Time

Historically, the first two weeks of January see motivated sellers who re-listed after the holidays and fewer competing buyers (everyone's recovering from December spending). Add in lenders with fresh annual quotas to hit, and you've got a recipe for some surprisingly good deals. According to Realtor.com's seasonal data, January buyers often pay 8-10% less than spring buyers on comparable properties. That's not nothing. 💰

🎯 Lender Promos: Start 2026 Right

🏠 Shopping for Any Property? Primary residence, vacation home, or building your rental empire—fill out this quick form and we'll connect you with lenders who are aggressively competing for your business in January. Fresh year = fresh motivation to close deals.

💼 Ready to Add to Your Investment Portfolio? Smart investors know January is when the real deals happen. Less competition, motivated sellers, immediate tax benefits. Connect with investment property specialists here who eat, sleep, and breathe cash flow analysis.

🏖️ Thinking Short-Term Rental Strategy? 2026 is looking strong for STRs in the right markets. Get matched with STR-specialized lenders here who understand occupancy rates, seasonal cash flow, and how to structure these deals for maximum ROI.

🧠 Educational Corner: The 1% Rule vs. Reality in 2026

Let's talk about the 1% rule for rental properties—and why you need to understand it but also know when to ignore it. 🤔

The Classic Rule: A rental property should generate monthly rent equal to at least 1% of its purchase price. So a $300,000 property should rent for $3,000/month. Simple math, right?

The 2026 Reality: In most appreciating markets, you're lucky to hit 0.7%. And you know what? That's sometimes still a great deal. Here's why this rule needs an update:

💡 The Modern Investor's Formula

Appreciation + Cash Flow = Total Return

A property in Austin might only hit 0.7% on the 1% rule, but if it's appreciating at 5% annually, your total return is crushing a property in a declining market that hits 1.2% cash flow but loses value. BiggerPockets research shows that wealth is built through the combination, not just one metric.

The New Calculation:

  • Cash Flow: Even 0.6-0.8% can work if you're breaking even or slightly positive monthly
  • Appreciation: Historical 3-5% annually in growth markets
  • Loan Paydown: Tenants paying your principal = forced savings
  • Tax Benefits: Depreciation alone can save $3,000-7,000+ annually

Real Example: Buy a $350,000 property that rents for $2,500/month (0.71% rule). You're maybe breaking even monthly after expenses. But: $350K × 4% appreciation = $14,000/year. Plus $5,000 in principal paydown. Plus $4,000 in depreciation tax savings. That's $23,000 in annual wealth building on a property that "failed" the 1% rule. 🎯

When 1% Still Matters: If you need immediate cash flow (retired, living off properties), aim higher. But if you're building long-term wealth? Focus on the total return picture, not just one arbitrary metric.

🏘️ For Investors: January 2026 Market Positioning

Here's what smart investors are doing right now in early 2026:

1. Scooping Up "Expired Listing" Opportunities
Properties that didn't sell in Q4 2025 are coming back on market with newly realistic pricing. Sellers who weathered the holidays without a sale are highly motivated. This is negotiation season. 🤝

2. Going Warm While Everyone Else Shivers
January is perfect for buying STRs in Florida, Arizona, Southern California, and Texas. Why? You're buying in the middle of their high season, so you can immediately verify actual occupancy and income data rather than trusting pro formas. Plus, if you close this month, you're set up for the entire prime 2026 season. ☀️

3. The Fix-and-Flip Winter Advantage
Contractors are typically slower in January/February. That means better availability, potentially better pricing, and faster completion times. Buy now, renovate through winter, list in April when the spring buyers come out. It's like having a timing cheat code. ⏰

4. Capitalizing on 2025 Tax Deductions
Already own investment properties? You still have until April 15th to get a cost segregation study done for properties purchased in 2025. This can accelerate depreciation deductions worth $20,000-$50,000+ depending on your property. That's money back in your pocket at tax time. 💸

🚀 Level Up Your STR Game:

💰 Personal Finance Hack: The Bi-Weekly Payment Strategy That Actually Works

⚡ How to Pay Off Your Mortgage 7 Years Early (Without Feeling It)

Here's a strategy that sounds too good to be true but is actually just smart math: making bi-weekly mortgage payments instead of monthly. Let me break down why this works and how to do it right. 🧮

The Magic Math:

• There are 52 weeks in a year
• Paying half your mortgage every 2 weeks = 26 half-payments = 13 full payments
• You normally make 12 payments per year
• You're making one extra payment annually without even noticing

Real Numbers:
On a $400,000 loan at 6.20% over 30 years:

  • Monthly payment: $2,454
  • Bi-weekly payment: $1,227 (half of monthly)
  • Result: Loan paid off in 23 years instead of 30
  • Interest saved: Approximately $92,000 over the life of the loan

According to Bankrate's calculations, this is one of the most painless ways to build equity faster. You're not actually paying more money—you're just aligning your payments with your paycheck schedule (most people get paid bi-weekly anyway). 💪

How to Do This (Without Paying Fees):

❌ DON'T: Sign up for your lender's bi-weekly payment program that charges $300-400 in setup fees plus monthly fees. That's a scam.

✅ DO THIS INSTEAD:

  1. Calculate 1/12th of your monthly payment (in our example: $2,454 ÷ 12 = $204.50)
  2. Add that $204.50 to your regular monthly payment
  3. Mark it clearly as "principal only" when you pay
  4. Boom. Same result, zero fees.

Or Even Simpler: Round up your payment. Pay $2,500 instead of $2,454. That extra $46/month adds up to one extra payment annually, shaving years off your mortgage. NerdWallet's research shows this is psychologically easier than making one large extra payment annually. 🎯

The Catch: Make sure your lender applies extra payments to principal, not future interest. Call and confirm this when you set it up. Also, if you're itemizing deductions, you'll save slightly less in mortgage interest deductions—but the $92K in saved interest far outweighs that tax benefit.

Pro Tip: Got a January bonus or tax refund coming? Make a one-time extra principal payment equal to one month's payment. Combined with the bi-weekly strategy, you'll pay off your mortgage even faster. Think of it as giving your future self a raise. 💵

📰 Market Intel: What's Moving the Needle Today

Let's talk about what's actually happening in the market right now, January 6th, 2026:

Post-Holiday Inventory Bump
Listings are starting to come back online after the December slowdown. Realtor.com's latest data shows new listings up approximately 12% compared to late December. Translation: more choices for buyers, which means more leverage in negotiations. 🎯

Rate Forecast for Q1 2026
Most analysts expect rates to stay in the 6.0-6.5% range through March. The Fed has signaled patience on any further rate moves, and Freddie Mac's forecast suggests stability is the name of the game for now. No one's promising 3% mortgages, but we're also not seeing 8% anymore. Call it "the new normal." 📊

Winter Buying Season Is Underrated
According to Zillow's research, winter buyers face 15-20% less competition than spring buyers, yet they're shopping from the same inventory pool. Sellers listing in January are typically more serious (not just "testing the market"), which means more productive negotiations. If you're house hunting, this is your moment. ❄️

The Rental Market Remains Strong
National average rents are stable and even growing in many markets. For investors, this means rental income remains reliable despite higher mortgage rates. The key is buying in markets with strong job growth and rental demand fundamentals. Apartments.com data shows continued strength in Sun Belt markets, college towns, and tech hubs.

🎓 Quick Lesson: PMI Removal Strategy

Quick one because this saves people thousands: If you put down less than 20% on your home, you're paying PMI (Private Mortgage Insurance). But here's what most people don't know: you can request to remove it once you hit 20% equity. 🎉

With rates where they are, this is actually achievable faster than you think through:

  • Home value appreciation: Got your home appraised? Value went up? That's equity baby.
  • Principal paydown: Those extra payments we talked about earlier? They help you hit 20% faster.
  • Home improvements: Major renovations increase value, which increases equity.

Federal law requires lenders to automatically cancel PMI when you reach 22% equity, but you can request removal at 20%. That's potentially $100-200/month back in your pocket. Worth a phone call, right? 📞

🎯 Should You Lock Your Rate This Week?

If you're actively shopping for a loan right now, here's the honest take:

At 6.20%, we're in a relatively stable zone. The Fed's next meeting isn't until late January, and no major economic reports are due this week that would dramatically swing rates. If you've found the right property at the right price, lock it in. Trying to time the market for a 0.125% improvement is like trying to time the stock market—you might win, or you might watch rates rise while you wait. ⏰

Remember: You can always refinance later if rates drop significantly, but you can't go back and buy that perfect investment property after someone else snatches it up. The cost of refinancing is typically offset if rates drop 0.75% or more—so you've got a built-in hedge.

🎯 Your January Action Plan:

Ready to make 2026 your year? Here's how to get started:

🌟 The Bottom Line

January 6th, 2026. Rates at 6.20%. A new year full of opportunity. While everyone else is still working on their New Year's resolutions (that they'll abandon by February), smart investors and buyers are taking action. 🚀

The market isn't going to be "perfect"—it never is. But waiting for perfect conditions is how people spend years on the sidelines watching property values climb while they're still renting or missing out on investment opportunities. Real estate remains one of the most reliable wealth-building tools, even with rates in the 6% range. 💎

Plus, let's be real: the tax benefits, appreciation potential, loan paydown, and cash flow still work at 6.20%. They worked at 18% in the 1980s (yes, really), and they'll work now. The question isn't whether rates are "perfect"—it's whether you've found the right property that fits your goals. 🎯

So here's my challenge to you: What's your 2026 real estate goal? Primary residence? First rental property? Growing your STR portfolio? Make this the year you stop researching and start executing. Future you will thank present you. I promise. 💪

The Lending Letter
📬 Daily mortgage market insights
🚀 Because rates move fast, and so should you

See you tomorrow (Wednesday, January 7th) with fresh intel! 📊

Disclaimer: This newsletter is for informational and educational purposes only. Mortgage rates, terms, and availability vary by lender, property type, and borrower qualifications. All strategies discussed should be evaluated based on your specific financial situation. Always consult with licensed mortgage professionals, financial advisors, and tax professionals before making real estate or financial decisions. Past performance doesn't guarantee future results.