💍 Marrying the House vs. Dating the Rate

We run the actual math on waiting for lower rates. Spoiler: Home appreciation is winning. Rates holding firm at 6.20%.

Author

Alex Veytsman
January 03, 2026

🎆 The Lending Letter 🏡

New Year, Same Rates (But Fresh Opportunities)

Happy Saturday! ☕ Welcome to 2026! While you're probably still recovering from last night's celebrations (or wondering where you put your New Year's resolutions), the mortgage market is... taking a nap. Because it's Saturday. But that doesn't mean we can't talk strategy. 😎

📊 TODAY'S 30-YEAR FIXED RATE
6.20%
Unchanged from Friday | According to Mortgage News Daily | Markets Closed for Weekend

🎊 First Weekend of 2026: Where We Stand

So here's the deal: We kicked off 2026 with rates holding steady at 6.20%, which is exactly where we ended Friday. Markets are closed for the weekend, which means lenders are using Friday's pricing. But let's talk about what this really means for you. 🤔

The 6.20% rate represents a pretty stable start to the year. We're not seeing the volatility that plagued us in late 2024, and that's actually refreshing. Think of it like starting the year with a clean slate—no drama, just consistent pricing that you can actually plan around. 📋

🎯 The January Effect

Here's something most people don't know: January is historically one of the best months for mortgage rate shoppers. Why? Lenders just hit their year-end goals and are now looking to build momentum for 2026. They're hungry for business, which means they're competing harder for your loan. Translation: now might be the perfect time to shop around. 🛍️

💰 Lender Promos: Start 2026 Strong

🏠 New Year, New Home? Whether you're buying your first place or your tenth, fill out this quick form to get matched with lenders who are fired up to close deals in Q1. Fresh budgets mean fresh opportunities.

🏢 Investment Property Goals for 2026? January is prime planning season. Smart investors are locking in deals now before spring competition heats up. Connect with investment specialists here who can help you build your 2026 portfolio strategy.

🏖️ STR/Airbnb Empire Building? Want to add rental properties to your 2026 goals? Get connected with STR financing specialists here who understand seasonal cash flow and can structure loans that actually make sense for short-term rentals.

🧠 Educational Corner: The "Marry the House, Date the Rate" Strategy

You've probably heard this phrase thrown around, but let's actually break down what it means and why it matters in today's market. 💍

The concept is simple: Don't wait for perfect rates to buy the perfect property. Buy the right house now, then refinance later if rates drop. But here's where most people get this wrong—they don't run the actual numbers.

💡 The Real Math Behind This Strategy

Scenario: You're looking at a $400,000 house. Should you buy now at 6.20% or wait for rates to potentially drop to 5.70%?

Option 1 - Buy Now at 6.20%:
• Loan amount: $320,000 (assuming 20% down)
• Monthly P&I: $1,957
• You start building equity immediately
• You lock in today's home price

Option 2 - Wait 6 Months for 5.70%:
• Home prices typically appreciate 3-6% annually (let's say 4%)
• Same house is now $408,000
• Loan amount: $326,400 (20% down on new price)
• Monthly P&I at 5.70%: $1,897
• You save $60/month but paid $8,000 more for the house
• Break-even: 133 months (over 11 years!)

The Kicker: If you buy now and rates drop, you can refinance. According to Freddie Mac's data, refinancing costs typically range from $2,000-$5,000. With the scenario above, if rates drop to 5.70% and you refinance, your new payment becomes $1,957 → $1,848 (saving $109/month) and you still bought at the lower home price. That's the best of both worlds. 🌍

Bottom Line: Home price appreciation often eats up any savings from waiting for lower rates. The right property at a fair price beats waiting for the "perfect" rate almost every time. Math doesn't lie, even if your Uncle Jerry at Thanksgiving dinner does. 🦃

🏘️ For Real Estate Investors: Your 2026 Tax Planning Starts NOW

Listen, if "maximize tax benefits" isn't at the top of your 2026 goals list, you're leaving serious money on the table. Here's your January action plan: 📝

1. Cost Segregation Studies = Instant Write-Offs
Most rental property owners don't realize you can accelerate depreciation deductions through cost segregation. Instead of depreciating a $500,000 rental property over 27.5 years ($18,182/year), a cost seg study can reclassify components (landscaping, flooring, fixtures) into 5, 7, or 15-year categories. This can create massive first-year deductions—we're talking five to six figures in some cases. 🤯

Get a free cost segregation estimate here and see what you could be saving. It's literally found money.

2. The STR Tax Loophole (100% Legal)
Short-term rentals get special tax treatment that long-term rentals don't. If you materially participate in your STR (over 500 hours/year or more than anyone else), you can deduct unlimited losses against your W-2 income. According to IRS Publication 527, this is one of the only ways to use real estate losses to offset active income. 💰

Thinking about adding STRs to your portfolio? Talk to our STR loan specialists who understand how to structure these deals for maximum tax efficiency.

3. Furnishing Write-Offs (With 0% Interest!)
New STR property? All that furniture, decor, and equipment? 100% deductible in year one under Section 179 or bonus depreciation. Even better? Our partner offers 0% interest financing for furnishing rental properties. You get the tax deduction now while spreading payments over time with no interest. It's like the IRS is helping you decorate. 🛋️

⚡ January Action Items for Investors:

🎓 Personal Finance Hack: The Mega Backdoor Roth Strategy

💎 High Earner? This Could Save You Hundreds of Thousands

If you're a high earner (single income over $146,000 or married over $230,000 in 2026), you're phased out of direct Roth IRA contributions. But there's a completely legal workaround that lets you potentially shelter an extra $46,000+ per year in tax-free growth. Welcome to the Mega Backdoor Roth. 🚀

Here's How It Works:

Step 1: Max Your After-Tax 401(k) Contributions
Most people know about the $23,000 401(k) contribution limit (plus $7,500 catch-up if you're 50+). But what they don't know is the total contribution limit including employer match and after-tax contributions is $69,000 in 2026 ($76,500 if 50+). 🤯

Step 2: Make After-Tax Contributions
If your employer's 401(k) plan allows it (about 70% do), you can contribute after-tax dollars to fill the gap between your regular contribution and that $69,000 limit. Let's say you contribute $23,000 normally and your employer matches $5,000. You can contribute an additional $41,000 after-tax.

Step 3: Convert to Roth Immediately
Here's the magic: If your plan allows in-service distributions or in-plan Roth conversions (most do), you can immediately convert those after-tax contributions to a Roth 401(k) or roll them into a Roth IRA. Because you're converting immediately, there's little to no tax on the conversion (you already paid tax on the contributions). According to financial planning experts, this is one of the most powerful wealth-building strategies available to high earners.

The Result: That $41,000 now grows 100% tax-free forever. Over 30 years at 8% average returns, that single year's contribution becomes $413,000... tax-free. Do this every year for 30 years? We're talking millions in tax-free wealth. 💰💰💰

The Catch:
• Your employer's 401(k) must allow after-tax contributions
• Your plan must allow in-service distributions or in-plan Roth conversions
• You need the cash flow to max this out (we're talking $41,000+ extra per year)
• You must do the conversion quickly to avoid tax on gains

Action Item: Call your HR department Monday morning and ask two questions:
1. "Does our 401(k) allow after-tax contributions?"
2. "Does our plan allow in-service distributions or in-plan Roth conversions?"

If the answer to both is yes, congratulations—you just found a legal tax shelter most people don't even know exists. If they say no, ask them to add this feature. Many companies will if employees request it. 📞

📊 Market Intel: January 2026 Housing Outlook

Let's talk about what's actually happening in the housing market as we start the new year: 🏘️

Inventory is Your Friend Right Now
We're seeing more listings hit the market compared to this time last year. National inventory data shows buyers have real options again. Not 2019 levels, but we're trending in the right direction. For buyers, this means negotiating power is slowly coming back. 📈

The Frozen Homeowner Effect is Thawing
Remember all those homeowners "trapped" by their 2-3% mortgages? They're slowly starting to move. Why? Life happens—job changes, growing families, divorces, retirements. Plus, many bought in 2020-2021 and have built substantial equity. According to CoreLogic, homeowner equity is near record highs, giving people more flexibility to make moves despite higher rates. 🏃

Seasonal Opportunity Window
January through early March is historically the least competitive time to buy. Fewer buyers, motivated sellers who listed during holidays, less competition for contractor services if you need repairs. Zillow's research consistently shows Q1 buyers often pay 2-3% less than summer buyers for similar properties. That's real money. 💵

New Construction is Still Hot
Builders are offering incentives that resale sellers can't match—rate buydowns, closing cost credits, free upgrades. If you're in a growth market, new construction might be where the real deals are hiding. Builders have inventory they want to move before spring, and they're willing to negotiate. 🏗️

🤔 Should You Refinance Your Existing Mortgage?

If you currently have a mortgage above 7%, you're probably wondering if now's the time to refinance. Here's the honest breakdown: 🧮

The 1% Rule (Mostly Still Applies)
Traditional wisdom says refinancing makes sense if you can drop your rate by at least 1%. At current rates, that means if you're above 7.20%, a refi to 6.20% could pencil out. But you need to account for closing costs.

Do the Break-Even Math
Refinancing typically costs 2-5% of your loan amount in fees. On a $300,000 loan, that's $6,000-$15,000. If dropping from 7.20% to 6.20% saves you $200/month, you break even in 30-75 months. Run your specific numbers before deciding. ⏱️

The "Wait for Lower Rates" Gamble
Some people are holding out, hoping rates drop to 5.5% later in 2026. But here's what they're forgetting: every month you wait, you're paying that 7%+. If rates do drop further, you can always refi again. But you can't get back the thousands you overpaid while waiting. Get a free refi quote and see what your actual savings would be. Knowledge is power. 💪

🎯 Your 2026 Real Estate Resolution Should Be...

Forget "lose 10 pounds" or "read more books." Here's a real estate resolution that could actually change your financial future: 📚

"I will buy at least one cash-flowing rental property in 2026."

Why this resolution beats all the others:

• Forced Savings
Your tenant pays down your mortgage every month. It's like having someone else fund your retirement account. According to Census data, the median rent hasn't dropped below the median mortgage payment since the 1980s. You're not betting on appreciation—you're building equity with other people's money. 🏦

• Tax Benefits That Actually Matter
Depreciation, mortgage interest deductions, property tax deductions, repairs and maintenance... rental properties offer more tax breaks than almost any other investment. Your CPA will actually smile when tax time comes around. 😊

• Inflation is Your Friend
Your mortgage payment stays fixed. Rents go up. Expenses? You pass many to tenants. A rental that breaks even today could generate $500-1,000/month cash flow in 5-7 years purely from rent growth. That's how inflation works in your favor when you're leveraged. 📊

Ready to make this resolution a reality? Start with investment property financing here. January is when serious investors make moves while everyone else is still talking about their gym membership. 🏋️

🚀 Ready to Take Action?

Don't let 2026 be another year of "I should have..." Here's your playbook:

🌟 The Weekend Reality Check

Look, it's Saturday morning. You're probably in your PJs, maybe still working through that New Year's hangover, possibly questioning every life decision that led to eating that third slice of pizza at 2am. We've all been there. 🍕

But here's the thing about real estate and wealth building: the best time to start was yesterday, the second best time is now. Even if "now" is a lazy Saturday in your pajamas. Even if rates aren't perfect. Even if you're not 100% sure you're ready.

Rates at 6.20% aren't exciting, but they're workable. The market has inventory. Lenders are competing for business. Tax advantages haven't changed. The math still works for investors and homebuyers who do their homework. 📐

So while everyone else is spending January making (and breaking) gym resolutions, maybe make this the year you actually do something about your financial future. Five years from now, you'll either wish you'd started today, or you'll be glad you did. Choose wisely. ⚡

Now go make yourself another coffee, enjoy your Saturday, and maybe—just maybe—fill out that quick form to see what's possible. Future you will thank present you. Trust us on this one. ☕

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Disclaimer: This newsletter is for informational and entertainment purposes only. Rates and terms vary by lender and borrower qualifications. Always consult with a licensed mortgage professional and tax advisor for your specific situation. Investment strategies discussed require careful consideration of your personal financial situation and risk tolerance. Past performance does not guarantee future results.